Creating a Market
Anyone will be able to create a prediction market on MidasPredict. Pose a question, define the outcomes, seed some liquidity, and set your creator fee. When people trade in your market, you earn a direct cut of every trade.
Prerequisite: Midas Catalyst Badge
Before you can create a market, you need the Midas Catalyst badge. Earn it by completing four one-time tasks — 7-day peck-in streak, joining the community, Twitter/X verification, and hitting trade volume thresholds on testnet and mainnet.
See Midas Catalyst for full details. Once earned, market creation is permanently unlocked.
Prerequisite: Midas Catalyst Badge
Before you can create a market, you need the Midas Catalyst badge. Earn it by completing four one-time tasks — 7-day peck-in streak, joining the community, Twitter/X verification, and hitting trade volume thresholds on testnet and mainnet.
See Midas Catalyst for full details. Once earned, market creation is permanently unlocked.
Step by Step
1. Write a Clear Question
✅ Good: "Will Bitcoin exceed $150,000 by December 31, 2026?"
✅ Good: "Will the Fed cut rates at their June 2026 meeting?"
❌ Vague: "Will Bitcoin moon?"
2. Define the Outcomes
Binary (YES / NO) — most common
Multi-outcome (A / B / C / D) — for questions with several answers
Outcomes must be mutually exclusive (only one can be true) and collectively exhaustive (at least one must be true).
3. Set the Observation Window
Every market needs an explicit observation window — the time range during which the resolving event is measured.
Start: market creation time (default)
End: market expiry time
Historical data from before market creation does not count toward resolution unless your rules explicitly say so.
⚠️ Don't write "on or before April 20" without a start time. A threshold market without a start window can be misresolved from pre-creation data. Always bound both ends.
4. Choose Resolution Sources
Pick 2–3 verifiable, publicly accessible sources. See Resolution Sources for the approved list per category.
Oracle source: Which data feed resolves the outcome?
Resolution date: When does the market close?
Dispute bond: Collateral required to challenge (subjective markets)
5. Write Tight Resolution Rules
Your rules must answer all six questions:
What exactly triggers each outcome?
What is the definitive source?
What time zone and deadline applies?
What is the observation window? (start + end timestamps)
What happens if cancelled, delayed, or partially completed?
Do edge cases count? (wicks, bot views, recounts, revisions)
6. Seed Initial Liquidity
The minimum initial liquidity is $500. Deposit collateral (zkLTC, stablecoins, or supported tokens) to provide starting liquidity.
💡 You earn Midas Points equal to your seed amount — doubled if Boosted. Seeding $500 earns 500 MP (or 1,000 MP if boosted). Seeding $100K+ auto-boosts and earns 200,000 MP.
7. Set Your Creator Fee (0–2%)
0%
Maximum volume. Good for reputation-building.
1%
Balanced. A good starting point.
2%
Higher per-trade revenue, best with captive audiences.
8. Launch
Your market is submitted for admin review (Pending stage). Once approved, it goes Active and traders can start buying and selling within minutes. See Market Lifecycle & Disputes.
💡 Markets don't stop after launch. As trades flow, prices move and your initial position drifts out of alignment with the live market. See Rebalancing Your Market for how to swap your share inventory between outcomes and keep your exposure aligned with current odds.
Threshold / "Reaches" / "Touches" Markets
These are the most common source of resolution disputes. If your market asks whether a value will reach, touch, exceed, or fall below a threshold — be extra explicit.
✅ Correct wording:
"Yes if ZRO trades ≥ $2 on CoinGecko at any point between 2026-04-18 11:44 UTC (market creation) and 2026-04-20 23:59 UTC (expiry)."
❌ Ambiguous wording:
"Yes if ZRO reaches $2 on or before 2026-04-20." (no start time — a token that hit $2 in March would trigger false Yes)
If you want historical data to count, say so explicitly with a clear start timestamp.
Monetization
Creator fees
0–2% of all volume in your markets
Market creation MP
MP equal to your seed amount, 2× if Boosted
Midas Points
Points from your own trading → monthly pool share
Referral rewards
Bonus points + cash when your followers trade
Rebalancing
Swap your seed-inventory shares between outcomes via LS-LMSR while the market is active — defend against stale-position risk. See Rebalancing Your Market
FAQ
Can I withdraw my initial liquidity?
Yes. After the market resolves and closes, your seed liquidity is unlocked and can be redeemed along with any accumulated creator fees.
Can I trade in my own markets?
Yes. As a trader, you earn Midas Points like anyone else. Creator fees and trading profits are separate.
What if my market's outcome is disputed?
Every resolved market enters a 24–48 hour dispute window. If a user successfully disputes the outcome, it's updated by the Judge Team. See Market Lifecycle & Disputes.
What happens if my resolution rules are ambiguous?
Ambiguous rules are usually caught and rejected during Pending review. If they slip through and the market can't be resolved to any listed outcome at resolution time, the market resolves as Void — all stakes are returned. See Market Lifecycle & Disputes. Write tight rules to avoid this outcome.
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