# Resolution Sources

Every market needs a **definitive source** — the data feed or publication that determines the final outcome. This page lists approved sources by category, along with the edge cases each category typically hits.

Pick **2–3 sources** per market. The first is authoritative; the rest serve as fallbacks if the primary is unavailable.

***

### Principles <a href="#principles" id="principles"></a>

* **Specific over generic.** Link to the exact coin page, tournament page, or data endpoint — not the homepage.
* **Public and verifiable.** Anyone should be able to check the outcome independently.
* **Timestamp-aware.** Prefer sources that expose timestamps, not just current values.
* **Original > aggregated.** Prefer primary sources (official event sites, data APIs, government pages) over news rewrites.

***

### Crypto <a href="#crypto" id="crypto"></a>

**Primary sources**

* [CoinGecko](https://www.coingecko.com/) — aggregated spot prices, volume, market cap
* [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/) — aggregated price index
* [Binance](https://www.binance.com/), [Coinbase](https://www.coinbase.com/), [Kraken](https://www.kraken.com/) — direct exchange APIs for last-trade prices
* [TradingView](https://www.tradingview.com/) — timestamped candle data

**What to specify**

* Which exchange / which pair (BTC-USD vs BTC-USDT)
* Price type: last-trade vs aggregated spot vs daily close vs 24h VWAP
* Do flash wicks and single-trade spikes count?
* Which timestamp is authoritative if exchanges diverge?

**Example:**

> "Resolves Yes if the last-trade price of BTC-USD on Coinbase Exchange is ≥ $80,000 at any timestamp between market creation and 2026-05-01 23:59 UTC. Flash wicks count."

***

### Sports <a href="#sports" id="sports"></a>

**Primary sources**

* [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/) — scores, standings, recaps
* Official league sites: [NBA](https://www.nba.com/), [NFL](https://www.nfl.com/), [MLB](https://www.mlb.com/), [NHL](https://www.nhl.com/), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/), [FIFA](https://www.fifa.com/), [UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/)
* Tournament-specific: Masters, Wimbledon, US Open, Super Bowl official pages

**What to specify**

* Does overtime/extra time count?
* What about forfeits, disqualifications, weather cancellations?
* Regulation-time only, or full game?
* What if the match is rescheduled past expiry?

**Example:**

> "Resolves Chelsea Win if the Premier League official site records Chelsea as the winner of the Chelsea vs Manchester United fixture on 2026-04-18. Draws and Man United wins resolve as Other Result. If rescheduled past expiry, market voids."

***

### Political / News <a href="#political--news" id="political--news"></a>

**Primary sources**

* [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/), [AP](https://apnews.com/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/)
* Official government pages (White House, Federal Reserve, State Department, equivalents abroad)
* Specific regulators: [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/), [CFTC](https://www.cftc.gov/), [FCC](https://www.fcc.gov/)

**What to specify**

* "Announcement" vs "implementation" vs "ratification" — which counts?
* Multi-source requirement — 2+ independent confirmations for contested claims
* What counts as "official"? A tweet, a press release, a signed document?

**Example:**

> "Resolves Yes if Reuters and AP both report, by 2026-06-30 23:59 UTC, that the Federal Reserve has announced a rate cut at the June 2026 FOMC meeting. Leaks and speculation don't count — the announcement must be from the Fed itself."

***

### Economy <a href="#economy" id="economy"></a>

**Primary sources**

* [SEC EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/edgar) — filings, IPOs, insider transactions
* [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/), [WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/) — earnings, market data
* Company IR pages — official earnings, guidance
* [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/) — macro indicators (CPI, GDP, unemployment)

**What to specify**

* IPO = shares trading publicly, not just S-1 filing
* Earnings = as-reported (GAAP) or adjusted (non-GAAP)?
* Revised data — do revisions override preliminary?

***

### Science <a href="#science" id="science"></a>

**Primary sources**

* [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/), [ESA](https://www.esa.int/), [JAXA](https://global.jaxa.jp/)
* [Nature](https://www.nature.com/), [Science](https://www.science.org/) — peer-reviewed publications
* Institutional pages: CERN, NIH, WHO, USGS

**What to specify**

* Define "success" or "confirmation" precisely
* Does a press release count, or only peer-reviewed publication?
* What if a mission is delayed past expiry?

**Example:**

> "Resolves Yes if NASA officially declares Artemis II mission success by 2026-04-14 23:59 UTC, defined as: (1) completed lunar flyby, (2) successful Pacific splashdown, (3) all four crew recovered alive."

***

### Technology <a href="#tech" id="tech"></a>

**Primary sources**

* Official company blogs, press releases, keynote recordings
* SEC filings for public companies
* [GitHub releases](https://github.com/) for open-source projects

**What to specify**

* Launch = announced / shipped / generally available?
* Region-locked rollouts — which regions count?
* Soft launches, invite-only betas, rollbacks

***

### E-Sports <a href="#e-sports" id="e-sports"></a>

**Primary sources**

* [Liquipedia](https://liquipedia.net/) — brackets, rosters, results
* [HLTV](https://www.hltv.org/) (CS), [VLR.gg](https://www.vlr.gg/) (Valorant), [Dotabuff](https://www.dotabuff.com/) (Dota 2)
* Official tournament organizer pages (Riot, Valve, ESL, BLAST)

**What to specify**

* Series format (Bo1 / Bo3 / Bo5)
* Forfeits, DQs, bracket resets
* Roster lock date if a player swap happens pre-match

***

### Entertainment <a href="#entertainment" id="entertainment"></a>

**Primary sources**

* [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/) — box office grosses
* [Billboard](https://www.billboard.com/) — music charts
* [IMDb Pro](https://pro.imdb.com/) — production, release data
* Official studio / label pages, awards body sites (Oscars, Grammys, Emmys)

**What to specify**

* Box office: domestic / worldwide / opening weekend / total gross?
* Streaming: Netflix Top 10, Nielsen, or another chart?
* Revised figures — audited numbers override estimates?

***

### Culture / Social <a href="#culture--social" id="culture--social"></a>

**Primary sources**

* Direct YouTube video URLs for view counts
* Direct Twitter/X, Instagram, TikTok post URLs for engagement metrics
* Official account pages

**What to specify**

* Do bot views/revised counts affect the outcome?
* Platform-side removals — what if the post is deleted before expiry?

***

### Manga <a href="#manga" id="manga"></a>

**Primary sources**

* Official publisher sites: [Shueisha](https://www.shueisha.co.jp/), [Kodansha](https://www.kodansha.co.jp/)
* [MANGA Plus](https://mangaplus.shueisha.co.jp/), [Viz Media](https://www.viz.com/)
* [Anime News Network](https://www.animenewsnetwork.com/)

**What to specify**

* Official publication date, not scanlation leak
* Series ending requires author/publisher confirmation
* Chapter numbers, volume counts, or sales thresholds — use the official figures

***

### Weather <a href="#weather" id="weather"></a>

**Primary sources**

* [NOAA](https://www.noaa.gov/), [NWS](https://www.weather.gov/) (US)
* [ECMWF](https://www.ecmwf.int/), [Met Office](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/)
* [NHC](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) for Atlantic storms, [JMA](https://www.jma.go.jp/) for West Pacific

**What to specify**

* Station, time window, measurement type (high / low / mean)
* Preliminary vs verified readings
* Equipment failure handling

***

### Markets That Need Extra Care <a href="#markets-that-need-extra-care" id="markets-that-need-extra-care"></a>

Some topics don't have a clean data feed. For these, use multiple independent sources and write extra-tight rules:

* **Geopolitical events** (ceasefires, treaties, sanctions) — define announcement vs implementation, require 2+ sources
* **Celebrity / public figure statements** — require an official account post or verified press outlet
* **Ongoing crises** — define the specific milestone precisely; ambiguous "resolution" almost always disputes
* **Court cases and legal rulings** — use court records (PACER, national equivalents) directly

***

### What Doesn't Count <a href="#what-doesnt-count" id="what-doesnt-count"></a>

* Social media rumors and unconfirmed claims
* Third-party analysis or opinion pieces
* Wikipedia (secondary source — cite what Wikipedia cites instead)
* Sources behind paywalls without public verification
* Tweets from non-official accounts impersonating the subject

If a source only appears reputable because another source says so, dig up the original and cite that instead.


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